What modern cars are currently appreciating in value? I’m talking about relatively modern cars, year 2000 and up cars; we’re not talking about old NSXs, Supra Turbos, and the air-cooled Porsches which have obviously already skyrocketed in value.
Many people will tell you that modern cars don’t and can’t be appreciating; they’re “too new” and there’s still “too many” out there. However, there are developing trends in the automotive industry which will permanently change the types of vehicles being offered. These trends include fuel economy regulations (say goodbye to bigger engines) and consumer purchase habits skewing toward automatic transmissions (say goodbye to the manual.) Crash safety ratings are getting more competitive (say goodbye to lighter, more nimble cars) and everything’s going electric (say goodbye to purely-mechanical steering feel.) All of these developing trends, combined with the economic boom post-recession, are causing these modern cars to start appreciating much earlier than expected.
So how do I know what’s appreciating and what’s not? I’ve been tracking auction sales data for a long time at various sources (including eBay Motors, Manheim Dealership Auctions, Bring-A-Trailer, Barrett Jackson, etc.) I took this data and have developed a methodology here to de-couple various factors that drive inflation-adjusted market values, factors that include mileage, model year, seasonality, auction source, and, the most important, time. I avoid analyzing cars that have shown to have poor investment potential; cars with certain attributes such as automatic transmission, convertible (S2000, the exception), and high-volume sales figures.
Without further ado, here’s the updated list for this month:
The “average mileage at sale” and “average sales price today” give some context about what’s currently selling on the market for that specific vehicle model. The “% Price Change” is year-over-year and I’ve included for a 5K increase in miles over that one year time span (because I don’t believe in buying a car just have it sit and be looked at.) Important things to keep in mind here are sales tax and registration (you’re starting down ~10% at the beginning of the transaction) and maintenance/repairs/insurance costs.
So let’s address the list. There are some exciting cars here.
- 2002-2005 911 Turbo Coupe w/ X50 Power Option (996 Generation) (Turbo S in 2005)
You’ve seen this car on posters before, but it’s yoke-shaped headlights and water-jacketed engine block have given this car an unfair disposition. Once made famous as “the cheapest 911 Turbo you can get” (with the previous gen 993 Turbo values now blasting past six-figures), this highest-trim 996 Turbo is finally starting to move the needle in the marketplace now.
Recent sales examples include this one, a 13K mile example that went for $64.4K. You could’ve bought a 996TT w/ X50 and 10K miles for $54K back in 2015 on eBay.
2. 2008-2009 Honda S2000 CR
Reliable, exciting, mechanical. Honda doesn’t make cars like this anymore (none of the Japanese brands do.) Would you believe that these used to sell at Manheim auction for $17K back in 2014? You can’t even get a clean 2005 non-CR for less than that nowadays.
3. 2009-2012 Porsche 911 C4S Coupe (997.2 Generation)
Porsche really hit the sweet spot with this 911. Famously reliable engine finally (you couldn’t say that about the 99-08 911 Carreras), great looks, great size, great feel, N/A, wide body, AWD for year-round appeal. They dipped down as far as $51K at Manheim back in 2015, but you’d have trouble getting a low-mileage example for less than $55K today.
4. 2008-2010 Dodge Viper SRT10 Coupe (8.4L 600hp)
Hello, ‘Murica. 600 horsepower for $60K? I think a lot of people are on-board with that idea. With the newest-gen Viper officially ceasing production this year, everybody believes that the Viper is now going to be dead forever. Looking at the Manheim auction data going back to 2014, I can say with good certainty that low-mileage examples aren’t losing any value.
5. 2010-2012 Porsche 911 GT3 (997.2 Generation)
Porsche’s dual-purpose GT car for the street and the track. This was the last manual GT3… until Porsche announced that the next 991.2 GT3 will also get a manual option; so we’ll need to keep a close eye on what happens to the value of these cars. You could get a 21K mile example at Manheim last year for $87K. Good luck with finding one for that price this year.
6. 2003-2007 Lamborghini Gallardo Coupe
If you’re lucky enough to find one with the gated manual shifter, and have the balls to withstand maintenance/repair costs on an early Gallardo, then you deserve to be rewarded with some appreciation.
7. 2006-2007 Dodge Viper SRT10 Coupe (8.3L 510hp)
This Viper (as opposed to the 08-10 version mentioned above) only has 510hp and sells for about $20K less.
8. 2000-2003 BMW M5 Sedan (E39 Generation)
This is the only sedan on this list and, for many, this is still the best BMW ever made. Comfortable enough for four, a reliable and powerful V8 engine, and one of the last M-Cars that really felt like an “Ultimate Driving Machine”. One company is already starting to hoard all of the clean examples, so finding one at a reasonable place would be quite the challenge.
9. 2010-2013 Porsche 911 Turbo Coupe (997.2 Generation)
Some would say this is the best-looking modern Porsche, with its clean front-end design, iconic wide body with intake vents, signature deck lid rear wing, and the “right size” relative to its newer and bigger 991 counterpart. This is also the last generation of 911 Turbo available with a manual transmission, and the production volumes for this particular car are a little-known fact. This source estimates (based on figures from “Total 911”) that there are less than 800 examples of the 997.2 TT in manual out there, which makes it almost as rare as the 997.2 GT2RS (5oo units) and 997.2 GT3RS 4.0 (600 units), and more rare than the 997.1 GT3RS (1100 units), 997.1 GT2 (1216 units), 997.2 GT3RS (15oo units.) Depreciation for these cars has flattened out over the past year, so we’ll see how it does moving forward.
Honorable Mention
These are the cars that I didn’t have enough sales data on to include, but there’s at least some data to suggest that they belong in this discussion.
- Porsche GT2 (any gen)
- Porsche GT3RS (any gen)
- Pontiac G8 GXP
- Audi R8 V10 Coupe 09-12
And, for reference, here’s the full list of cars I had enough data on:
Cars & Sports & Data. Daily. 